Transplants are not to blame for TX’s real estate boom


Texas has been a favored resettlement destination in recent months, and while some Texans might be inclined to blame lower out-of-state housing affordability, a new analysis shows there’s no correlation between migration patterns and home prices. Real estate prices rose steadily throughout the 2010s, even though the state added about 100,000 new residents during the same time, according to a study by the Texas Real Estate Research Center.

“There is essentially no correlation between statewide Texas home price increases and migration patterns over the past 15 years,” said Wes Miller, senior research associate for TRERC at Texas A&M University, in a press release.

While out-of-state buyers don’t appear to affect the Texas real estate market, they can affect certain local markets or neighborhoods, the study found. Miller said a growing corporate sector and job market, mortgage rates and low housing supply are better indicators of the booming Texas housing market.

The economic profile of people moving to the state changed over time, although the number of moves remained relatively the same. The median income of those moving to Texas became higher than that of their Texan counterparts as of 2014.

However, the study shows that the median home value between those moving to the state and those already in Texas remained constant for about 15 years. Miller said while those who moved to Texas may have earned higher incomes, that wasn’t reflected in their home buying decisions.

“Part of this may be due to the fact that movers are often young and more likely to rent when moving across state lines for the first time,” Miller said in the release.

The median age of new Texans was 29, compared to 41 for those already in Texas, the study shows. While 43% of these new Texans own a home, 73% of current Texans are homeowners.

Miller said the difference in the price of homes between new Texans moving to the state and those already in Texas may be due to their preference for more spacious homes. Miller said there is “no meaningful price-per-square-foot premium” as a result of these out-of-states moving in.


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